A few years ago, the price of oil fell sharply, which significantly affected the economic situation of our country. Now, even some women from the rural outback are watching the price of “black gold”. Recently, the situation with the world oil price has leveled off, but an increase in the production of this hydrocarbon in the United States may again bring down the purchase rate. The forecast for oil prices for 2019-2020 can hardly be called unambiguous, moreover, different people have a different opinion.
Versions of the Economic Forecasting Agency and the European Commission
Few people who are knowledgeable in the economy have a strong opinion that when oil rises in price, then everything becomes good. Only they do not know that the sharp jumps in growth turn into the same unexpected falls. The collapse of oil, or rather, the fall of its course, was observed by the world several years ago. After that, a protracted crisis period began in Russia.
After that, many analysts were afraid to make forecasts for the exchange rate of oil and various currencies. The Economic Forecasting Agency put forward a very optimistic version of the cost of “black gold”. APEcon experts suggest that the price will gradually increase in 2019, naturally decreasing in the summer period, again rising in price in autumn and winter. For 2020, the situation will be different.
Attention! The APEcon analytics agency put forward the version that in August 2020, the cost per barrel would be closest to $ 100. According to agency staff, the maximum price for 2019-2020 will be 98.1 dollars. It will not last long - from the next month, the cost will begin to fall. By the end of 2020, oil will be sold at 84.8 dollars per barrel.
The European Commission was initially more restrained in assessing the course, and then completely changed the forecast. Earlier, EC experts suggested that in 2019 the maximum price would be $ 80.6, and in 2020 no more than $ 77. Later, the opinion became more pessimistic - a barrel of the Brent brand will cost $ 61. Representatives of the European Commission reflected the data in the report, indicating as a reason for the low price a steady increase in hydrocarbon production in Canada and the United States.
Opinion of the International Energy Agency and Vnesheconombank
The cost of oil, according to forecasts by the IEA, will not be too high. At the same time, the world's energy agency predicts a moderate increase in prices. It is expected that in 2019-2020 a barrel will produce more than $ 60, but only under certain conditions. We are talking about the OPEC deal, about the agreements of the largest suppliers of hydrocarbon raw materials. The IEA experts did not just put forward an assumption of prices, they predict that the mark of $ 60 will be overcome with subsequent stabilization, although they do not precisely indicate the final boundaries. Therefore, while their forecast is in the amount of "above $ 60".
Worth to know! Financiers from different countries, including analysts from American companies, have an IEA-like position. Only the wording changes - instead of the word “above”, many of them assume that the prices will be “about $ 60”, which can mean a little more or a little less.
At the same time, oil is getting more expensive, although a little timidly. In the first quarter of 2019, prices were more consistent with IEA forecasts. The price per barrel exceeded 64 dollars, but the further prospects of the course are still unclear. In this regard, the assumptions are too fragmented, the fluctuations of the minimum and maximum forecasts make up almost 40%.
Based on this, Vnesheconombank has several scenarios for the development of the Russian economy. It is assumed that in the worst case, budget calculations were based on figures of $ 40-42 per barrel, with average values reaching $ 55-58. Exceeding the threshold of $ 62-62 will significantly reduce the budget deficit. At the same time, VEB analysts predict a general weakening of the economic positions of our country, as Russia still remains a commodity state, incapable of influencing global financial flows. In addition, the situation is heated by the fact that oil production on a massive scale in America is already affecting its value in the world market.
Forecasts from the World Monetary Fund and the World Bank
In early 2019, the IMF made a report on the expected prices of oil and gas. In the January report, values were given at 58.95 and 58.74 dollars per barrel for 2019 and 2020, respectively. In the fall of 2018, the World Monetary Fund put forward more optimistic values. Then the forecasts showed prices at 69 and 66 $. Like the European Commission, the IMF revised course due to increased oil production in North America.
Worth to know! Many analysts note the fact that hydrocarbon production in the USA has increased, which cannot be reflected on the world market. Therefore, experts are trying not to express clearly optimistic forecasts. Some say what the price of "black gold" will be, only with numerous reservations and conditional mood.
The World Bank, in its assumptions, also refers to the OPEC deal and the fact of a high level of uncertainty both in such an arrangement itself and in matters of subsequent pricing. WB representatives explain that the deal by the largest oil exporters is still incomprehensible to financiers. This can lead to serious market changes or have almost no significant effect.
Over the past few months, World Bank analysts have changed their minds on hydrocarbon prices in 2019-2020 three times already. At the same time, the indicated rate can be attributed to optimistic, because even after saying more modest values, the expected value is higher than in the forecasts of experts of the European Commission, IMF and IEA. The hydrocarbon market will be unstable, and therefore forecasts change all the time.
Prices in different months fluctuated:
- June 2018 - $ 69.
- December 2018 - $ 71.
- January 2019 - $ 67.
The latest rates were reflected in the World Economic Outlook projection report presented by the World Bank in early 2019. Given the numerous opinions having different values of hydrocarbon prices, an assumption from the WB can be considered the most probable, because in its forecasts, the World Bank is located in the middle. However, the complexity of the OPEC deal does not yet provide a clear understanding of what will happen to oil in the next 2-3 years.
The forecast for oil prices for 2019-2020 differs by 30% from different agencies and banks. However, both those and others can put forward new assumptions regarding 2020 a little later. In the meantime, it remains to be hoped that the cost of "black gold" will continue to grow smoothly, filling the treasury of our still raw country.